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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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